Skip to content
Moduloa

MOD-01 · Manufacturing · Stage 0, pre-revenue

Manufacturingwithout markup.

You buy capacity by the tier, not a locked relationship with one factory, and you see every line of the costed BOM. Materials, freight and duty pass through at documented cost.

Open the operating modelTell me where it breaks

Production tiers

Model v0.1
Tier 1Fast startFlexible production, low upfront engineering.
Tier 2Light standardLightly standardized recurring batches.
Tier 3Modular cellControlled flow for stable batches.
Tier 4Validated lineReconfigurable, with strong quality and traceability.
Tier 5Portable blueprintPress-play production, deployable across certified hubs.
On the record
29dated, falsifiable predictions
Tracked
43humanoids, 15 makers, sourced
Published
19weekly research notes
Customers
0so far, nothing has shipped

The position

Made where it is needed.Not for cheap labour.

Then the routing software matters more than owning the building.

Near the material first, near demand over time. It is on the record twice, ten years apart: P-07 (2036) takes wages out of the decision, then P-16 (2046), "Supply chains are shorter; production sits close to final demand." Neither is proven.

Read the thesis

Three ways to pay

The margin lives in the membership, not the unit

Units at documented cost plus a flat, published handling rate, and a yearly subscription that buys what nobody else sells: reserved capacity with a two-week order-to-ship promise, at any hub your product is qualified for.

Wholesale proved this shape retains customers for decades; the chip industry signs it as billion-dollar capacity agreements; cloud made it the default pricing of computing. Ours is the same contract, for physical production.

The subscription is designed against its own known failure modes, because they are documented. Capacity is never oversold: at most 85% of a hub's nameplate is subscribable. Half the fee is deductible against handling on units you actually ship; unused reserved units roll over one quarter; you can resize ±20% at renewal. The two-week promise penalizes us, not you: misses convert to service credits.

The long game from the thesis: hubs pay for certification and the factory OS, deployments of a blueprint to a new hub carry a fee, and routed production carries a network transaction fee. This is the revenue that scales without owning every factory.

How we make money

Four lines earn; everything else passes through at cost
ModelShapeWhere the margin sits
A · Per unitClassic, kept honestIn the unit price, published
B · Capacity subscriptionProduction as a membershipIn the membership, not the unit
C · The frameworkHow the network earnsIn certification, the OS, deployment and routing
Logistics · every modelFreight and duty at documented costIn one published orchestration fee

The fourth opacity · the currency line

Four ways a USD 1,200 line becomes a euro figure, and the uplift each carries
TreatmentUpliftSource of the rate
Rate taken as 1.0013.80%ECB reference, 2026-07-29 (1.1380)
Rate fixed and never refreshed11.59%Fixed 2025-01-13 at 1.0198
Three stacked conversion hops2.72%Nordea published 0.90% margin
An FX buffer inside the markup base5.00%Illustrative: we cannot source it
The currency figures are re-derivable from one free, archived endpoint: ECB series EXR.D.USD.EUR.SP00.A. For scale: Sanmina earned 8.81%, Plexus 10.08% and Benchmark Electronics 10.16% gross margin in FY2025.

The evidence

Nobody else runs a dated, sourced humanoid tracker

Four KPIs a reader can check (price, availability on a 0–4 ladder, verified customers, units in field), with the source URL kept on every claim, and rejected claims logged alongside accepted ones. It is a tracker, not a verdict, and it is CC BY 4.0 so it can be argued with.

Open the trackerWhat changed this week

Humanoid maturity index · Moduloa’s model, as of 2026-08-31

10.1% of the way to humanoids that could run a Moduloa hub

The humanoid maturity index dimension by dimension: each input, its weight, and the points it contributes, as of 2026-08-31. Total 10.1%.
DimensionReading todayWeightPoints
Verified paid work5 of 30 verified customers, 16.7%355.83
Units in field · leader8,400 of 1,000,000, 0.8%300.25
A price you can payno maker with verified paid work publishes one, 0.0%250.00
Openly on sale6 of 15 makers at rung 4, 40.0%104.00
Humanoid maturity index10010.1

100% is defined, not felt, and it is built from five dated claims in the register, P-01, P-03, P-05, P-20 and P-21. One condition comes straight from them: every verified customer relationship is paid industrial work, which is P-01’s “not pilots, not demos”. The rest is ours. The register names no unit count, so 1,000,000 machines in the field for the leading maker is Moduloa’s mark; it makes no claim about order channels, so “all 15 tracked makers sell one you can order” is Moduloa’s too. The price axis is a gate rather than a scale: it scores 0 while no maker with verified paid work publishes a price at all, and if one ever does the build stops for a person to judge, the snapshot records paid work per maker and prices per model, so it cannot say whether a price belongs to the machine doing the work. Those two marks, that gate, and the four weights are Moduloa’s judgement, not a finding. Every reading is a field in the snapshot this section links to, recomputed on every build.

Who is winning the humanoid race

The availability ladder, 0 to 4: where the 15 tracked makers sit, as of 2026-08-31
StageWhat it meansWho is there
4Openly on sale: public price + order channelUnitree, AgiBot, 1X, Fourier, Kepler, Booster + EngineAI
3Paid work at customers: real revenueAgility Robotics, Figure AI, UBTech
2Unpaid pilots at real customer sitesBoston Dynamics, Apptronik, NEURA, Sanctuary
1Working demo in the maker's own labTesla, XPeng
No maker has changed rung since 2026-07-15, across 8 snapshots on file. The record has been revised 8 times, most recently on 2026-08-31, which logged 7 changes.

The research

A deep-researched note most weeks, tied back to the predictions register. Every claim carries its source, and the honest-limits section is not optional.

All notes

16 notes, one swapped at a time

On board

Every lasting endeavor keeps a manifest of who stands behind it. Entry numbers are permanent, and the earliest names carry the most weight. A seat is earned by putting something real into the work: corrections, engineering, craft, a pilot product, or capital that understands the shape.

The register is open

Ask Datum