{ "_meta": { "description": "Moduloa predictions register — the future-facing claims behind Moduloa Manufacturing, frozen at recording time. Human-readable version: https://moduloa.com/predictions. Claims are immutable; only their scores change.", "recorded": "2026-07-10", "statuses": [ "open", "correct", "partly", "wrong" ], "rules": { "scoring": "open = undecided; correct = happened as claimed; partly = directionally right, materially off; wrong = did not happen. A score only lands with public sources and a decision date.", "expiry": "A claim still open when its deadline passes is scored wrong automatically, with reasoning 'deadline passed unproven'. No extensions.", "immutability": "The claim text is never edited. Only status, scored, reasoning, and sources may change.", "review": "Reviewed weekly by an automated research pass. Conservative by design: no credible public source, no score. When a claim is scored, predictions.html must be updated to match: the row's badge class changes to badge--correct / badge--partly / badge--wrong with matching label text, and a line Scored YYYY-MM-DD · source is appended inside the row after the badge. A dated build-log entry is added on manufacturing.html and an entry is added to feed.xml." }, "version": "1.1", "contact": "shk@moduloa.com", "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" }, "declared_failure_modes": [ "humanoid timing", "humanoid reliability", "capital intensity", "customer willingness to trust portable production" ], "predictions": [ { "id": "P-01", "horizon": 2031, "deadline": "2031-12-31", "claim": "Humanoid robots are doing real, paid industrial work — not pilots, not demos.", "status": "open", "scored": null, "reasoning": null, "sources": [] }, { "id": "P-02", "horizon": 2031, "deadline": "2031-12-31", "claim": "Their first wide adoption is in repetitive, dangerous, and undesirable work.", "status": "open", "scored": null, "reasoning": null, "sources": [] }, { "id": "P-03", "horizon": 2031, "deadline": "2031-12-31", "claim": "Humanoid unit cost has fallen well below the roughly USD 20,000 of 2026.", "status": "open", "scored": null, "reasoning": null, "sources": [] }, { "id": "P-04", "horizon": 2031, "deadline": "2031-12-31", "claim": "Robot tooling — grippers, fixtures, task-specific equipment — is an emerging high-margin market.", "status": "open", "scored": null, "reasoning": null, "sources": [] }, { "id": "P-05", "horizon": 2036, "deadline": "2036-12-31", "claim": "Humanoid deployment has scaled into mainstream manufacturing.", "status": "open", "scored": null, "reasoning": null, "sources": [] }, { "id": "P-06", "horizon": 2036, "deadline": "2036-12-31", "claim": "The labor-cost advantage of low-wage regions is measurably eroding.", "status": "open", "scored": null, "reasoning": null, "sources": [] }, { "id": "P-07", "horizon": 2036, "deadline": "2036-12-31", "claim": "Production location is decided by BOM structure, energy, logistics, tariffs, and risk — not wages.", "status": "open", "scored": null, "reasoning": null, "sources": [] }, { "id": "P-08", "horizon": 2036, "deadline": "2036-12-31", "claim": "High-wage countries — Norway among them — are winning back selected manufacturing categories.", "status": "open", "scored": null, "reasoning": null, "sources": [] }, { "id": "P-09", "horizon": 2036, "deadline": "2036-12-31", "claim": "Customers pay a premium for manufacturing optionality — the ability to move production when conditions change.", "status": "open", "scored": null, "reasoning": null, "sources": [] }, { "id": "P-10", "horizon": 2036, "deadline": "2036-12-31", "claim": "Validated production blueprints move between certified factories; portable production is commercially real.", "status": "open", "scored": null, "reasoning": null, "sources": [] }, { "id": "P-11", "horizon": 2036, "deadline": "2036-12-31", "claim": "Customers buy production tiers — levels of engineering, repeatability, and portability — not just production.", "status": "open", "scored": null, "reasoning": null, "sources": [] }, { "id": "P-12", "horizon": 2036, "deadline": "2036-12-31", "claim": "A factory OS — software controlling layout, tools, quality, and capacity as versioned configuration — is central to flexible manufacturing.", "status": "open", "scored": null, "reasoning": null, "sources": [] }, { "id": "P-13", "horizon": 2036, "deadline": "2036-12-31", "claim": "Toolmaking and fixture capability is recognized as one of Norway's critical industrial gaps — and is being rebuilt.", "status": "open", "scored": null, "reasoning": null, "sources": [] }, { "id": "P-14", "horizon": 2036, "deadline": "2036-12-31", "claim": "A new profession exists: the robot-era production technologist — machines, robots, fixtures, software, quality, and data in one role.", "status": "open", "scored": null, "reasoning": null, "sources": [] }, { "id": "P-15", "horizon": 2046, "deadline": "2046-12-31", "claim": "Manufacturing capacity works like cloud capacity: distributed, dynamically allocatable, standardized.", "status": "open", "scored": null, "reasoning": null, "sources": [] }, { "id": "P-16", "horizon": 2046, "deadline": "2046-12-31", "claim": "Supply chains are shorter; production sits close to final demand.", "status": "open", "scored": null, "reasoning": null, "sources": [] }, { "id": "P-17", "horizon": 2046, "deadline": "2046-12-31", "claim": "Manufacturers relying on lock-in, opaque pricing, and private process knowledge have lost strategic power to certified, interoperable networks.", "status": "open", "scored": null, "reasoning": null, "sources": [] }, { "id": "P-18", "horizon": 2046, "deadline": "2046-12-31", "claim": "The durable moat proved to be the framework — standards, data, certification, training — not the robots.", "status": "open", "scored": null, "reasoning": null, "sources": [] }, { "id": "P-19", "horizon": 2046, "deadline": "2046-12-31", "claim": "Robots participate in manufacturing robots.", "status": "open", "scored": null, "reasoning": null, "sources": [] }, { "id": "P-20", "horizon": 2056, "deadline": "2056-12-31", "claim": "Very little repetitive manual production work is done by humans.", "status": "open", "scored": null, "reasoning": null, "sources": [] }, { "id": "P-21", "horizon": 2056, "deadline": "2056-12-31", "claim": "A humanoid robot is as financially accessible as a car.", "status": "open", "scored": null, "reasoning": null, "sources": [] }, { "id": "P-22", "horizon": 2056, "deadline": "2056-12-31", "claim": "The defining policy question is how society is funded when robots do most physical work.", "status": "open", "scored": null, "reasoning": null, "sources": [] }, { "id": "P-23", "horizon": 2031, "deadline": "2031-12-31", "claim": "The first Moduloa hub exists and proves the humanoid-native operating model on real products.", "status": "open", "scored": null, "reasoning": null, "sources": [], "about": "moduloa" }, { "id": "P-24", "horizon": 2036, "deadline": "2036-12-31", "claim": "Existing factories have been converted into certified Moduloa hubs running portable blueprints — the network scales by conversion, not construction.", "status": "open", "scored": null, "reasoning": null, "sources": [], "about": "moduloa" }, { "id": "P-25", "horizon": 2046, "deadline": "2046-12-31", "claim": "The Moduloa framework — factory OS, tiers, certification, routing — operates as a global manufacturing capacity network.", "status": "open", "scored": null, "reasoning": null, "sources": [], "about": "moduloa" }, { "id": "P-26", "horizon": 2026, "deadline": "2026-07-19", "recorded": "2026-07-15", "claim": "Atlas — Boston Dynamics' humanoid, owned by Hyundai — places the match ball at kickoff of the FIFA World Cup final on 2026-07-19.", "context": "On 2026-07-05 Atlas delivered the halftime match ball at the Round of 16 (MetLife Stadium) — Hyundai's first live-match robotics integration, announced by Hyundai Motor Group. No final appearance was announced as of recording; a 2026-07-14 trade headline suggested Atlas's World Cup run had ended. The claim reads the activation as a signal: the majors now demonstrate humanoid capability on the biggest broadcast stages, and Hyundai escalates to the final.", "status": "open", "scored": null, "reasoning": null, "sources": [], "about": "industry" } ] }